The Effect of Population and Poverty Rate on Economic Growth in the Regencies/Cities of Aceh Province
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30601/mgbje920Keywords:
Population, Poverty Rate, Economic Growth, Panel Data, Aceh ProvinceAbstract
This study analyzes the effect of population size and the poverty rate on the economic growth rate of the regencies/cities in Aceh Province, Indonesia. The study used panel data combining time-series and cross-sectional data for the 23 regencies/cities in Aceh Province over the period 2019–2023 (115 observations), obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) of Aceh Province. The data were analyzed using panel data regression, and the best model was selected using the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests. The results show that the Fixed Effect Model is the most appropriate model. Population has a positive and significant effect on economic growth (coefficient 0.048845; p = 0.0000), and the poverty rate also has a positive and significant association with economic growth (coefficient 0.111714; p = 0.0000). Simultaneously, population and the poverty rate have a significant effect on economic growth (F-statistic 11.79192; p = 0.0000). The coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.758717, meaning that the model explains about 75.9% of the variation in economic growth, while the remaining 24.1% is explained by other variables outside the model. The positive association between poverty and growth indicates that growth in Aceh has not yet been sufficiently pro-poor. The study recommends improving the quality of the productive-age population and focusing poverty alleviation on productive employment and economic empowerment. Further research should include other determinants of growth, such as investment, human development, and fiscal transfers.References
D. Dollar, T. Kleineberg, and A. Kraay, “Growth still is good for the poor,” European Economic Review, vol. 81, pp. 68–85, 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.05.008.
G. A. Marrero and L. Servén, “Growth, inequality and poverty: A robust relationship?,” Empirical Economics, vol. 63, no. 2, pp. 725–791, 2022, doi: 10.1007/s00181-021-02152-x.
E. W. F. Peterson, “The role of population in economic growth,” SAGE Open, vol. 7, no. 4, 2017, doi: 10.1177/2158244017736094.
R. Afrida, U. Usman, and T. Abbas, “Pengaruh jumlah penduduk dan belanja tidak langsung terhadap kemiskinan di Kabupaten Aceh Timur,” Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 23–29, 2021, doi: 10.29103/jeru.v4i2.6054.
R. A. Mulia and R. P. Putri, “Pengaruh tingkat kemiskinan dan produk domestik regional bruto terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat,” Jurnal Ilmiah Ekotrans & Erudisi, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 22–33, 2022, doi: 10.69989/68ye6x37.
A. Rizkina, “Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pengentasan kemiskinan di Aceh periode 2012–2022,” Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, dan Akuntansi (JEMSI), vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 1691–1695, 2023, doi: 10.35870/jemsi.v9i4.1477.
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Aceh, Provinsi Aceh Dalam Angka, 2020–2024 eds. Banda Aceh, Indonesia: BPS Provinsi Aceh, 2020–2024.
I. Ikhsan, V. Hajad, N. Marefanda, A. Saputra, and H. Herizal, “The special autonomy funds are not for poverty alleviation: A lesson from Aceh’s way,” Journal of Local Government Issues (LOGOS), vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 161–175, 2022, doi: 10.22219/logos.v5i2.21658.
C. D. Fitri, W. D. Safitri, and C. Chairunnas, “Analisis pengaruh penduduk usia produktif yang tidak bekerja, zakat, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan indeks pembangunan manusia terhadap tingkat kemiskinan kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Aceh,” Ekobis: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Syariah, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 1–10, 2017.
J. Nufus and R. Husein, “Pengaruh PDB, jumlah penduduk dan indeks pembangunan manusia terhadap kemiskinan pada kab/kota di Provinsi Aceh,” Jurnal Ekonomika Indonesia, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 33–43, 2021, doi: 10.29103/ekonomika.v10i1.4507.
F. Mawati and K. Anwar, “Pengaruh jumlah penduduk usia produktif, kemiskinan dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Kabupaten Bireuen,” Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 15–22, 2018, doi: 10.29103/jeru.v1i1.935.
E. Y. Hasibuan and R. Rukiah, “Pengaruh jumlah penduduk, indeks pembangunan manusia dan kemiskinan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Provinsi Sumatera Utara,” PROFJES: Profetik Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 627–642, 2023.
M. A. Tirtana, S. M. Sipayung, F. Zendrato, S. Sukardi, and A. A. Tanjung, “Upaya meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui faktor kemiskinan, pengeluaran pemerintah, dan investasi luar negeri di Sumatera Utara,” Jurnal Ilmiah Muqoddimah, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 173–180, 2024, doi: 10.31604/jim.v8i1.2024.173-180.
R. S. R. Parhusip, R. L. Sari, and I. Lubis, “Analisis pengaruh pendapatan asli daerah, IPM, kemiskinan dan jumlah pengangguran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara,” Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING), vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 1712–1718, 2026, doi: 10.31539/j4f7cb80.
M. Yasin, “Analisis pendapatan asli daerah dan belanja pembangunan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di kabupaten/kota Jawa Timur,” Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING), vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 465–472, 2020, doi: 10.31539/costing.v3i2.1161.
B. H. Baltagi, Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 6th ed. Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2021, doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-53953-5.
A. Bell, M. Fairbrother, and K. Jones, “Fixed and random effects models: Making an informed choice,” Quality & Quantity, vol. 53, no. 2, pp. 1051–1074, 2019, doi: 10.1007/s11135-018-0802-x.
K. S. Imai, R. Gaiha, and A. Garbero, “Poverty reduction during the rural–urban transformation: Rural development is still more important than urbanisation,” Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 39, no. 6, pp. 963–982, 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2017.10.002.
E. Ligon and E. Sadoulet, “Estimating the relative benefits of agricultural growth on the distribution of expenditures,” World Development, vol. 109, pp. 417–428, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.12.007.
J. H. Kim, “Multicollinearity and misleading statistical results,” Korean Journal of Anesthesiology, vol. 72, no. 6, pp. 558–569, 2019, doi: 10.4097/kja.19087.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Hayatun Magfirah, Yuliana, Edi Saputra
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Proposed Policy for Journals That Offer Open Access Authors who publish with Jurnal Humaniora agree to the following terms: a. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal. b. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal. c. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).