The Effect of Population and Poverty Rate on Economic Growth in the Regencies/Cities of Aceh Province
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30601/mgbje920Kata Kunci:
Population, Poverty Rate, Economic Growth, Panel Data, Aceh ProvinceAbstrak
This study analyzes the effect of population size and the poverty rate on the economic growth rate of the regencies/cities in Aceh Province, Indonesia. The study used panel data combining time-series and cross-sectional data for the 23 regencies/cities in Aceh Province over the period 2019–2023 (115 observations), obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) of Aceh Province. The data were analyzed using panel data regression, and the best model was selected using the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests. The results show that the Fixed Effect Model is the most appropriate model. Population has a positive and significant effect on economic growth (coefficient 0.048845; p = 0.0000), and the poverty rate also has a positive and significant association with economic growth (coefficient 0.111714; p = 0.0000). Simultaneously, population and the poverty rate have a significant effect on economic growth (F-statistic 11.79192; p = 0.0000). The coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.758717, meaning that the model explains about 75.9% of the variation in economic growth, while the remaining 24.1% is explained by other variables outside the model. The positive association between poverty and growth indicates that growth in Aceh has not yet been sufficiently pro-poor. The study recommends improving the quality of the productive-age population and focusing poverty alleviation on productive employment and economic empowerment. Further research should include other determinants of growth, such as investment, human development, and fiscal transfers.Referensi
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